Here's the final part of our Premier League preview, an in-depth piece that should probably now be called something else, as we're so late getting it out the door. Liverpool to West Ham, minus Leicester who we covered a week ago: enjoy.
Liverpool
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| Will he? Or will he not? |
On
the plus side, Juergen Klopp finally has a front three that accords with his blueprint. With record signing Mo Salah slotting in to
the right of Firmino and Sadio Mane, Liverpool now possess an attack
that can chase and press as hard as Klopp could wish. The Egyptian new boy should
also restore some of the ball-carrying capacity that was lost with the
departure of Raheem Sterling. Divock Origi and Daniel Sturridge are
hardly shoddy back-ups, though there must be a limit to how long
Sturridge will hang around now he's not assured of a first team place.
Things
look less rosy in midfield. Transfer rumours involving Philippe
Coutinho have been a distraction all summer, reaching critical levels in
August. If he wants to leave, then most pundits think it would be best for Liverpool to do
the deal as soon as possible, to allow at least some time to go out and recruit. Many
will recall the club's desperate splurge of GBP35m on Andy Carroll in 2011, to replace Fernando Torres on deadline day. However, Liverpool seem inclined to resist selling Coutinho on principle.
The Brazilian has certainly been a
critical source of goals and chances in recent seasons; Adam Lallana is
competent in a similar position, but might struggle in the role of
primary creator. Elsewhere, Jordan Henderson is a notch or two short
of the real deal as a Champions' League midfield general, Georginho
Wijnaldum has yet to really find a role, and Emre Can sometimes gives the
impression of still having much to learn.
At the back, doubts
are often voiced about the choices at centre-back. in fairness,
however, Joel Matip has established himself well since arriving from
Schalke, so the enduring questions focus mainly on Dejan Lovren. Potential
replacements Mamadou Sakho and Ragnar Klavan are both somewhat out of
favour. Andrew Robertson looks like an
excellent addition at left-back, where James Milner deputised for most
of last season, while Klopp will be hoping for a successful return for
Nathaniel Clyne to add some attacking threat at right-back; Clyne
excepted, Liverpool's defenders are no great shakes going forward.
In goal, there's a lack of challenge to Simon Mignolet. The
Belgian is a spectacular shot-stopper but can struggle to command his
area; his main rival will be Danny Ward, returned from a successful
season-long loan at Huddersfield.
Liverpool
have one of the most potent attacks in the division, and on their day
will be among its best sides to watch. But the midfield and defence are,
in truth, some way from competitive with the Premier League's very best
sides, and if Coutinho does leave, then to replicate last year's 4th
place would represent over-achievement.
Strengths: Energy and ruthlessness in attack. A clear tactical vision and, for the most part, a squad that suits it.
Weaknesses: No glaring weaknesses, but a slight lack of quality by comparison with the very best, especially in the critical areas of defence and deep midfield.
To sum up: Treading water as ever. Need to sort out the Coutinho situation.
Predicted finish: 6th.
Manchester City
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| Mendy: been making friends and influencing people on Twitter |
Like
David De Gea a few seasons ago, Ederson is a young keeper with
frightening expectations to fulfill. So glaring a weakness was Claudio
Bravo's goalkeeping, last term, that the recruitment of the young
Brazilian to replace him has been billed as the key to reclaiming the
title for City.
Even if Ederson performs, however, this
may just serve to highlight problems in front of him. On recent form
and fitness, it is difficult to see a title-winning defence being
founded on any twosome from John Stones, Vincent Kompany, Nicolas
Otamendi and the returning Eliaquim Mangala. The biggest hope will be
Kompany continuing his return to his old self, and Stones overcoming the
wobbles of last season to recapture his early promise. City do not
allow too many chances, but their defence is not truly ruthless by the
standards to which they aspire.
Nor has it recently
made as much contribution as it should going forward, and this Pep
Guardiola has sought to address with some lavish recruitment at
full-back. No fewer than four wide defenders left the club this summer,
resulting in a complete turnover on both left and right. If Kyle Walker
looks severely overpriced.- Spurs didn't seem too sorry to lose him -
then Benjamin Mendy looks like a very good signing indeed. Fast, fierce
and comfortable on the ball, Mendy has been hired to buckle the swash
going forward. His form at Monaco and Marseille was hugely impressive,
even if he can sometimes be less than sure-footed on the defensive.
City's
midfielders and forwards need no introduction. One positive last
season was how quickly some of the summer signings settled,
especially Leroy Sane and Ilkay Gundogan. We tip the latter to be one of the stars of this season, most likely partnering Fernandinho in central midfield. Sergio Aguero will lead the line, with Kevin
De Bruyne, Sane, David Silva, Raheem Sterling and last season's
sensation Gabriel Jesus fulfilling different attacking roles as needs arise. Summer signing Bernardo Silva is
almost an afterthought, never mind returning loan exile Samir Nasri. It
is a terrifying line-up and the single reason so many pundits are
tipping City to take the title.
We wouldn't go so far as that, not with doubts at the back and
with cross-town rivals United so strong this year. City still struggle to be authoritative and Guardiola, accustomed
to success, will need to bear considerable pressure. There are many
players in the City side who'd deserve the Premier League medal, but we
are not sure that this is their year.
Strengths: Stunning array of attacking talent. Enough money to throw at any problem.
Weaknesses:
Only in relative terms, maybe, but the defence looks vulnerable.
Defensive fortitude seems to have gone out of fashion among most top
sides. The sceptic might also
ask questions of Guardiola, and whether
coaching's golden boy has the stomach to grind it out.
To sum up: We do not quite see enough mental strength and defensive fortitude to foil the irresistible forces that Conte's Chelsea are and Mourinho's United are becoming.
Predicted finish: 3rd
Manchester United
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| Mikhitaryan (in his Shakhtar shirt - Hull fans, this is not some joyous dream sequence) |
City
may have the brightest filament of attacking stars, and Chelsea and
Arsenal formidable starting XIs, but Manchester United now have the
best matchday squad in the Premier League. That's after a summer in
which the loss of Wayne Rooney has been cushioned by the acquisition of a
proper, uncompromising No.9 in Romelu Lukaku - filling probably the most
obvious gap in last season's squad.
In goal,
David De Gea has matured into a complete sweeper-keeper who probably
just loses out to Hugo Lloris for the title of the division's best
custodian. He's certainly ahead of the other main claimant, Thibaut
Courtois, on recent form. The defence, meanwhile, is short of star
names, but its collective performance speaks volumes, and United
conceded only 29 goals last time out. Household names they may not be,
but Eric Bailly, Marcos Rojo, Chris Smalling and Matteo Darmian are rock
solid pros capable of excelling at the very top level. Their
back-ups, men like Daley Blind, Antonio Valencia and even the
sometimes-lamented Phil Jones, are all top-quality Premier League
operators.
The depth of the quality really shows in
midfield and attack where United have two first-clas players in
almost every position. In the middle, see Pogba, Herrera, Matic and Carrick, even
Fellaini. Further forward, we have Mata, Mikhitaryan, Jesse Lingard, Valencia if he plays in an attacking role and, um, Ashley
Young. At centre-forward, Lukaku
is the No.9 the team has needed, ably supported by Marcus Rashford. And
let's not forget Anthony Martial - he has had a quieter couple of
seasons but he remains a highly dangerous forward, the man to whom Kylian
Mbappe is compared.
For all that, the squad will
surely miss Zlatan's intelligent line-leadership and Rooney's lurking
menace at some point this season. Another winger or two would be
useful, to allow a change of formation when things get sticky. But
perhaps the biggest questions are about Mourinho. The fiasco of his final
season at Chelsea has cast doubt upon whether he still has his sureness
of judgement and his ability to inspire the best. For many, he appeared
to have got his dream job at United too late in his career. The United squad last season was
almost as good as this, but Jose couldn't wring a top four spot out of it.
Then again, maybe he played his cards well by aiming for the Europa League crown, and the Champions'
League spot it carries.
Strengths: A cohesive
squad with Champions' League quality in every position. Consider their
squad man-for-man and it becomes apparent what an underachievement last
year was, even as they won the Europa League.
Weaknesses:
Dare we say it, but Mourinho, indomitable five years ago, now has
something to prove. Will it bring the best out of him? Also, there
aren't any top class true wingers in the squad - a sharp contrast to
great United sides past.
To sum up: It all
depends whether you bet on the Special One or against him. We're backing
him, and if he gets the best out of this squad then even the best of
the rest face an uphill struggle.
Predicted finish: 1st
Newcastle United
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| De Jong: good as new? |
Squad
depth is what won Newcastle promotion from the Championship last year.
Following an efficient rebuilding process in summer 2016, the Magpies
had two quality players for every position on the pitch.
Sadly, it was
two Championship quality players for the most part.
This
summer by contrast, recruitment has been made difficult by that large
squad, and by the wage bill it implies. Second-tier players on hefty
salaries have not proven easy to move on. So, against expectations,
Newcastle enter 2017-18 with a side little changed from last term.
The
squad's strongest point is at the back. There's a wealth of
choice in goal; either Rob Elliot or Karl Darlow will cope in the
Premier League, though many retain hope of a return to old form
for Tim Krul. The Netherlands international spent last season on loan at
AZ in his home country, and he'll be like a new signing if he can only get a squad number. In front of Krul, Chancel Mbemba is a mobile
and intelligent centre-back with much more to give than we have yet seen, and fellow Frenchman
Florian Lejeune looks like a smart recruit to join him. Young
centre-back Jamaal Lascelles was last year's captain but may need to
step back from the role as he adjusts to the top flight. Ciaran Clark is
perhaps a more rudimentary stopper, but is trusted by Benitez.
Right-back
was not a strong point last year and Benitez has recruited two fellow
Spaniards to help out in this role. Javier Manquillo looks no more than adequate
at Premier League level, but Jesus Gamez offers a higher quality
solution, at least in the short term (he's 32). At left-back, Benitez
persists in employing Paul Dummett, who in most people's estimation is
fundamentally a centre-half. There aren't many alternatives - Massadio
Haidara has failed to shine at this level before, and Achraf Lazaar is
already out of favour just one season into his contract.
Failed
recruitment like that of Lazaar is common at Newcastle, who seem
unusually prone to signing players who barely get a game. So in midfield
we find Henri Saivet, whom Newcastle signed in the ill-styarred 2015-16 season, played out of position a
couple of times, and then consigned to exile on loan.
Elsewhere there is
reasonable quality in midfield, but it's not clear what selection will
best blend attacking and defensive qualities. Last season
there was a lack of a top quality screening player; Isaac Hayden is
composed, even stylish, but his mobility is more that of an athletic
centre-half than a modern all-action midfielder. The season before, Jack
Colback and Vurnon Anita both struggled in the Premier League, lacking
the physicality for the role. Mikel Merino, on loan from Dortmund, could
therefore be one of Newcastle's smarter summer signings. Elsewhere in the
middle, Jonjo Shelvey has the ambition and many of the skills to be a
midfield general in the grand style, but does he have the temperament or the consistency? It's not clear that he does, even after many
years a Premier League regular. Creativity in squad comes largely from
the wings where Christian Atsu - his loanee made permanent this summer -
and Matt Ritchie are two of the squad's best players. Siem De Jong could
add to this roster in attacking midfield if he stays fit and if
Benitez' tactics can accommodate him.
The forward line is
the main weakness. Dwight Gayle has a poacher's instinct but hamstrings
like angel hair spaghetti, and he didn't score too many at this level
with Crystal Palace. Aleksandar Mitrovic has the aggression for the
rumbustious target-man role and isn't lacking in touch, but doesn't get
in dangerous positions enough, and collects cards like Pannini
stickers. GBP5m acquisition Joselu adds depth to the attacking ranks but
at 27 he's never been a regular goalscorer at top level, while fellow
Spaniard Ayoze Perez is better suited to a support striker role than to
leading the line. It really is quite difficult to see these men scoring
significant numbers of goals this season, and much of Benitez' next two weeks will surely be spent trying to find a proven striker for a
price his Chairman, Mike Ashley, will pay.
Strengths:
A wily coach who played last season very well. Solid enough defensive
personnel. Krul and De Jong will be like new signings, if Benitez
chooses to use them.
Weaknesses: Lack of goal threat. Patchy squad with lack of Premier League class upfront, in deep midfield and at fullback.
To sum up: If
we're predicting a decent finish for Newcastle, it's only because of
the number of even weaker clubs below them. If the squad settles, it has
enough quality to finish comfortable in mid-table, but that quality is
unevenly distributed. If, as is equally likely, nerves fray or injuries
bite, it could be a season of toil.
Predicted finish: 12th
Southampton
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| Tadic: key man |
Southampton
are seemingly the only club in the Premier League that love instability
as much as Watford do. Another summer, another manager and, indeed,
another set of foreign owners, too.
The latter's first
act may be to dig into the coffers to pay for a replacement for Virgil
van Dijk. The powerful Dutch centre-back has had two consistently
excellent seasons since signing from Celtic for GBP13m, back when that
was a lot of money for a mid-table side to spend on a defender. He seems
to have escaped the poisoned chalice of becoming a big-money Liverpool
centre-back, but even so he may well be on his way to Arsenal,
City or any of the other big clubs looking for a stopper.
If
he does go, then it's not clear who will partner Maya Yoshida at the
back. The much-improved Japanese defender was one of few players to
thrive under Claude Puel. Jack Stephens started the season opener
against Swansea, but will need to develop a lot if he is to become a
true Premier League first teamer. It's possible that new signing Jan
Bednarek might force his way into the first team squad but, with the
Pole only 21 years old, a more experienced replacement for van Dijk
could become a priority for new manager Mauricio Pellegrino.
Meanwhile,
the situation is stable at fullback. Ryan Bertand is first
choice on the left, with the highly promising Matt Targett as backup.
Bertrand is one of England's most consistent and underrated defenders;
perhaps he stayed at Chelsea too long to ever gain the recognition he
deserves. At right-back, Cedric Soares is pretty much an automatic pick.
Overall, it's a solid defensive unit which is more than capable of
making a contribution going forward, and is ably supported by England
international Fraser Forster in goal.
Southampton's
midfield lacks a little sparkle and has the air of a work-in-progress; not
surprising, perhaps, as this has been the area of the team raided
hardest by bigger rivals in recent seasons Although few members of the
current midfield line-up were signed by Puel, as a unit they share much
of the defensive outlook for which he was criticised. Jordy Clasie, a
Ronald Koeman signing, has never taken flight at St. Mary's, but if he
finds the form to match his underlying class then he may yet become a key man.
Fellow anchorman Oriol Romeu has been much more impressive, and is
the heart of the side; Mario Lemina is an interesting, but unproven,
addition in the same area. For reliable first-team company
for Romeu, Pellegrino like his forbears is likely to call upon the
dependable but unspectacular all-rounder Steven Davis. A priority for
this season will be to continue the development of more attacking
options in the middle, including the still-improving James Ward-Prowse
and Pierre-Emile Hjobjerg, who has immense potential.
Dusan
Tadic is the squad's best attacking player, and his retention and
motivation are key to Southampton's prospects this season. His fellow
advance-midfielder Nathan Redmond has pace and an occasional gift for
the spectacular, but doubts persist as to whether he can be a consistent
game-changer at this level. At centre-forward, Southampton are
seriously underpowered. Manolo Gabbiadini, signed in January after an
erratic career in Italy, did well enough in the second half of last
season, but neither he nor Shane Long, the athletic but goal-shy
Irishman, look likely 20-goal a season men at top level. Charlie Austin
once did, and a return to fitness and form for the injury-wracked target
man would be as good as a new signing - which is what Southampton
otherwise need.
Strengths: Behind the front line, a balanced and high quality lineup, albeit somewhat lacking in creative sparkle.
Weaknesses: The
disruptions of a new manager, new owner and van Dijk's on/off transfer
saga. Lack of a reliable goalscorer; the inability to put so much as one goal past
an insipid Swansea on the opening afternoon was not encouraging. Very
limited backup to cover for injuries.
To sum up: Difficult
to call, given all the regime change. We feel there's enough in the
squad to more or less repeat last season if van Dijk is replaced, which
we assume he will be. We may be proven wrong. One thing is for certain,
which is that Southampton will have to develop a long term strategy
founded on the retention of core talent and the building-out of the
squad with phased investment, if they are not to start going backwards.
Predicted finish: 7th.
Stoke City
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| Crouch: still a threat |
Last
season was a step backward for Stoke. After three successive
ninth-place finishes, hopes were high that attacking players like Marko
Arnautovic and Xherdan Shaqiri could push the squad into European
contention. Instead, Stoke slumped to thirteenth. Mark Hughes' intent to
play with more verve was frustrated as the flair players failed to gel,
and his team fell back on the harder-bitten values more readily
associated with Stoke.
Progress over the summer has
been limited. The squad obviously needs renewal, but the job is at best
half done, with several old-stagers moving on this year (Jon Walters,
Shay Given, Phil Bardsley, Glenn Whelan) but replenishment slow
in coming. Hughes' recruitment policies look especially odd in midfield,
where all of Charlie Adam, Ibrahim Affelay, and Stephen Ireland are the
other side of 30 and no longer regular starters, yet the only
summer reinforcement is 33 year-old Darren Fletcher. Of the
dad's army in the middle of the park, Whelan was an odd choice to let
go because he, of all these men, was still a regular
first-choice pick. Shaqiri and Joe Allen are the only two first-string
midfielders operating in their prime which, even with Fletcher's help, will make for a clever but hardly steely midfield. Workmanlike he may have been, but Stoke will miss
Whelan's graft.
There will be much discussion of the
departure or Marko Arnautovic, and with some reason because he performed
fairly well last season, albeit too often in individualistic fashion.
It's fair to ask what an ambitious footballer his age gains by joining
West Ham, a club that appear to be going backward at least as fast as
Stoke are. On the bright side, his absence may force Stoke finally to
properly make use of Bojan, who returns from his loan at Mainz. With he
and Shaqiri lining up in support of Berahino, the attack still has some
of the pizzazz that got people excited last summer - even if, again,
it's entirely on paper at this stage. Berahino has a lot to give,
although it's not certain he has the mix of skills required to lead the
line alone in a convincing manner; there's always Peter Crouch, the
Premier League's all-time top scorer of headed goals, when a change of
approach is needed.
There's no guarantee Stoke's attack will
function any better as a unit this season than it did last, but if it
does, then there should be more goals in the side than last year's paltry
haul of 41. They are likely to play through the middle; quality out
wide has never really been Stoke's forte, and it still isn't, with
converted centre-forward Mame Diouf and former orthodox fullback Erik
Pieters patrolling the flanks in the season opener at Everton. Perhaps things will change a little, with the signing of Eric Choupo-Moting on a
free from Schalke. Sharp, mobile and technical, he is the perfect
modern utility-forward, though sadly that includes not scoring
many goals. Choupo-Moting gave Schalke several excellent years of service and is
still in his prime; he could play out wide, but Hughes is unlikely to go
for the tactical revival of the out-and-out winger at this stage.
In similar fashion, Hughes seems to have more or
less given up on full-backs. Perhaps this is just as well, for he doesn't have
many; one of the few, former England man Glen Johnson, may be eyeing the exit as he seems
to be slipping from first team contention. But stability in defence has
been preserved by the permanent signing of Bruno Martins Indi, who was
solid on loan last term, while Kurt Zouma, impressive in Europe for
parent club Chelsea, looks like a sensible reinforcement on loan.
Completing the defensive line-up will be familiar first-teamers Ryan
Shawcross and Geoff Cameron, in front of Jack Butland, one of the side's
strongest individuals, in goal.
Strengths: A potent front three, if they work together and stay fit. Defence is solid. Zouma and Choupo-Moting will inject energy and pace.
Weaknesses: Other than Shaqiri, if he plays as he can, there's little on offer in midfield.
Still quite a few tactical questions unanswered, too.
To sum uo:
It's not going to be as bad as some fear for Stoke, but none of the
problems of last term have really been solved, so we foresee stagnation.
Predicted finish: 14th
Swansea City
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| Sigurdsson: will be much missed |
Genuinely,
we were surprised by how bad Swansea were last season. And they really
were bad. This season was shaping up as an interestingly controlled
experiment, to see whether it all really was down to coaching; the
promising Paul Clement has now had a summer to work with what was, until yesterday, more or less the same squad that competed (if that's the word) last year. However, the
departure of Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton for GBP45m - and the signings
that are bound to ensue - will likely change all that.
Sigurdsson's
exit has deprived the team of by far its most influential member. There does some real quality in the squad, in the form of Lukasz
Fabianski in goal, Federico Fernandez in central defence, Tom Carroll in
midfield and Fernando Llorente at centre-forward. But none of these men has the timeless quality of being able to take matters in hand and dictate the pace of a game, that is, to make the play. It's a quality the departed Icelander possessed in abundance.
Alongside Fernandez
in defence, fullback Martin Olsson is a proven operator, but Alfie Mawson and Kyle Bartley - though both talented -
have a lot of weight to bear for men still inexperienced at this level. Just as big a defensive issue last season, however, was the midfield's lack of bite. Leon Britton, Leroy Fer and Tom Carroll all make an
all-round contribution, but all are relatively attack-minded players
and, with the exception of Fer, they're somewhat lightweight. That defensive midfielder Jack Cork has left for Burnley does not help, though his presence was hardly decisive last year. All this said,
Paul Clement did seem to have successfully addressed the side's porousness
through tactical means in the second half of last season, when Swansea
conceded far fewer goals that in the first half. Clement has sought to build on
that with some sensible recruitment, signing the experienced Roque Mesa, a
defensive midfielder and link man from Las Palmas.
In
attack, Swansea's wide men look relatively weak at this level,
especially in terms of defensive contribution. This can put a lot of
pressure on Olsson and Kyle Naughton at full-back, themselves both quite gung-ho at times. Of the wingers, Wayne Routledge only rarely makes
a game-changing contribution, Jordan Ayew looks a shade short of
quality at Premier League level, and the classy Luciano Narsingh, while
dangerous, is unreliable when it's time to defend. As a whole, the
attack last season was very dependent on the quality of Sigurdsson's
deliveries to create goalscoring chances. This is the weakest area of
the side, and will require heavy reinvestment of the funds received.
The
man putting most of Sigurdsson's assists away was Fernando Llorente,
who will miss the opening few games through injury but has at least
stayed another season. The only other contender at centre-forward is
young Chelsea loanee Tammy Abraham who, although gifted, is awfully raw
to be carrying the expectations heaped upon him not only by Swansea, but
by the other clubs who engaged in the extraordinary chase for his
signature.
Strengths: An ambitious and
tactically flexible coach. A surprisingly decent spine, a really good
centre-forward in Llorente, and plenty of craft in midfield. Certainly not as bad a squad as last season's form suggested.
Weaknesses:
Weak in wide areas, and lacking matchwinning creativity with Sigurdsson
gone. Lightweight and can be very open tactically, although Clement
seemed to be fixing this.
To sum up:
Extremely difficult to call, given the impact of losing Sigurdsson so
late in the window. We have them surviving, even if only just. A
fair few of last season's problems were tactical, and Clement seems to
have got a grip, adopting a less open style and restoring confidence. We
assume the Sigurdsson money will be reinvested to reinforce the
midfield and wide attack. A difficult season, but not as difficult as
last year.
Predicted finish: 16th
Tottenham Hotspur
 |
| Big Daddy K |
Most
goals scored, fewest goals conceded; Spurs were the best team in the
league on the numbers, except for the number that counts: their league
placing, second. It must be frustrating, especially since they were almost as good
the year before. Third place.
This is the club with
perhaps the stablest team selection in the Premier League, and the
hierarchy are clearly betting that incremental tactical development of a
youthful and technically adept unit will be enough to push the team to the Premier League title that has now become the short- to
mid-term goal. The highest-profile transfer business over the summer was
the departure of Kyle Walker, likely to be replaced by his
near-namesake Kyle Walker-Peters, latest example of the seemingly
inexhaustible supply of attacking fullbacks at White Hart Lane. With
Kieran Trippier also able to step in, few expect Walker to be greatly
missed. The extremely expensive recruitment of Davinson Sanchez at
centre-half looks a quixotic choice of investment, given the excellence
of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Aldeweireld, but it's a step toward building a depth of squad commensurate with Spurs' superclub ambitions.
Danny Rose at left-back and Hugo Lloris in goal pick themselves, the
latter probably the division's best keeper, and one of the world's best.
Eric
Dier is now the lynchpin of the midfield. With Dele Alli, for better or
worse, now consistently deployed further forward, one of few tactical
conundra facing Mauricio Pochettino is whether to play Victor Wanyama or
Mousa Dembele alongside Dier. Alli now plays in an advance
midfield/wide second striker role to which few would have predicted his
natural abilities would suit him, but which he looks to be making his
own. Harry Kane, undisputed first choice at No.9, has completely
overcome early doubts of a different sort, in his case about his
technical ability. Years spent on loan in the lower divisions forged a
determined and forceful young striker whose strength is his ability
always to get his shot in. If any lingering doubts are deterring foreign
suitors, that only helps Spurs.
The other tactical
quandary is whether and how too accommodate the wandering star that is
Erik Lamela. To some, he is Spurs' most natural attacker, and offers a
world more threat than the more rumbustious Moussa Sissoko. To others, he is
an errant luxury player that Spurs can ill afford if they are going to
to accommodate Christian Eriksen, which they most certainly are. Eriksen above all else
is the reason there needs to be a fire under
Spurs' ambitions to finally win something. For if they do not, the Dane's time
at the Lane is probably limited.
Spurs, then, already
have a first XI that could win the title if things go their way. They
don't quite have the squad depth, yet, to cope nonchalantly with
everything a sustained title campaign might throw at them. Pochettino is
right to keep faith with his current team and indeed has little choice,
but most of their rivals have grown stronger through recruitment this
summer. For Spurs, growth will have to be endogenous - tactics,
training, psychology. If that is not enough then they may rue 2016,
already starting to look like a golden opportunity missed.
Strengths: Settled
and frequently brilliant first XI. Some of the individuals.- Lloris and
Eriksen in particular - are world class. A clear vision, and confidence
in it.
Weaknesses: Squad depth not what it
could be or may need to be. The huge potential distraction of playing
home games at Wembley. Danger of creeping frustration.
To sum up:
Spurs are good enough to win the title, if the Gods smile on them. So predicting their season is
going to be an instinctive call. Without a ground to truly call home, and
with their main rivals - other than Liverpool - stronger than last
season, we think Spurs are going to fall back. Not permanently,
necessarily, but this year. That's in the Premier League. We do think
a fairly serious tilt at the Champions' League is feasible.
Predicted finish: 5th
Watford
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| Okaka: potentially influential this year |
It
was under-publicised, but Watford had a rotten year last year. Walter
Mazzarri's side struggled to either score or prevent goals; that they
were still in mid-table in April just demonstrates how poor the Premier
Leahue's lower and lower-mid reaches were last term, with many
essentially poor sides bunched up. Mazzarri is now gone, the latest in. a
long line of managers to last one season or less. The instability built
into the Watford model seems to be slowly taking its toll.
There
is quality in the squad but it is somewhat potted. Younes Kaboul
remains a high quality Premier League centre-back, while Etienne Capoue
is equally adept there or in deep midfield. Jose Holebas at left-back
has also developed into a consistent high quality performer, and Daryl
Janmaat on the right of defence is an established Dutch international.
The class of these three, plus the still-decent Heurelho Gomes behind
them, suggests that Watford's leakiness was caused by tactical factors
rather than individual weaknesses.
Up front, Watford
have relied primarily on Troy Deeney for goals. With 10 in the league
last season, however, he has hardly been pulling up trees, even if his
all-round target play is effective. Andre Gray has been signed from
Burnley to provide an alternative focal point for the attack, although
he'd have to be classed as somewhat unproven at Premier League level.
Fans can probably expect to see more this season of Stefano Okaka, a
pacy forward with great movement, but who has yet to become a regular
goalscorer.
Selection uncertainty is an issue in
midfield, the zone that was probably the side's greatest weakness last
time out. Summer recruitment has focused on bolstering this area of the
squad. Will Hughes, formerly of Derby, has had to wait a surprisingly
long time for his Premier League move but he will now get real
first-team opportunities. Watford will surely find a good outlet for his
mix of fight and guile. However, Tom Cleverley, who has struggled more
than most would have predicted to establish himself, looks like a
makeweight acquisition, while Nathaniel Chalomah, on loan from Chelsea,
is very young to carry off the anchorman role - it's one of the most
tactically demanding positions in modern football.
Watford
fans will be looking to see more creativity from Roberto Pereyra and
new signing Richarlison. Pereyra hadn't really got going, last term,
before a knee injury ended his season. He is a player of considerable
energy and versatility, but there isn't much in his record to suggest he
can transcend the role of utility forward to become the man who meets
Watford's real need for a regular maker of goals. Richarlison, a
goalscoring winger, makes the relatively rare move direct from Brazil to
the Premier League. It looks like a big step, but the youngster has
pace and strikes a ball well, so could be useful on the counter-attack.
Strengths:
A number of versatile and high quality individuals especially in
defence. Hughes looks like a good signing. Finally, the potential ace in
the pack that we haven't mentioned yet - a really well regarded young
manager in Marco Silva.
Weaknesses: A
goal-shy attack, and it isn't clear that any of the forwards they've
signed are the answer. An underwhelming midfield. Tactical uncertainty
and regime change.
To sum up: On paper they're
not a lost cause, but we fear there are too many problems here for Silva
to turn around in a season. Watford roll the dice every year, it seems,
and thise year we fear they've rolled a 1.
Predicted finish: 20th
West Bromwich Albion
 |
| Brunt: defender and creator |
The
very definition of mid table respectability, famous for pulling up
stumps once they've hit the milestone 40point mark. That's West Brom,
especially since Tony Pulis took over at the Hawthorns in 2015.
The
side's now-routine ability to power into the top half of the table
early in the season suggests there's sufficient class in the squad to
think about a push towards the European places. A mindset shift and a
few sensible reinforcements will be required. It will be interesting to
see whether Pulis, whose reputation as a defensive and pragmatic manager
is entirely justified, can achieve the former. As to the latter, what
Baggies fans would like to see most, perhaps, is investment in the
attacking areas of a squad that only mustered 43 league goals last
season.
At the time of writing, there had been only one
such reinforcement, the signing of Southampton centre-forward Jay
Rodriguez for GBP12m. Capped once by England in 2013, the striker looks
like a good acquisition for a mid table side. Not young any more at 28,
he still has things to prove after a career stalled by injury. With
Rodriguez and Salomon Rondon, the only man other than Duncan Ferguson to
score a Premier League hat-trick of headers, the West Brom attack has a
forceful, physical character. However the wide attacking options - Hal
Robson-Kanu, Callum McManaman, James McClean - are every so slightly
second-string, leaving Matt Phillips and Nacer Chadli as the squad's
primary creators. Both had good seasons last year, especially Phillips,
even though the team's overall goal return was poor. So unless Pulis can
help them find a hidden extra gear, the most obvious way of fixing the
attack is to get more goals out of Rondon and Rodriguez.
West
Brom's midfield does not lack skill, but it is set up to hold the fort
rather than to take the game to opponents. Deep-lying Claudio Yacob has
ben an unsung hero over several seasons at the Hawthorns, a natural
ball-winner and competitor who keeps things simple. Long-time
collaborator James Morrison is a hard-working midfield all-rounder with
more attacking skills in his locker, while newer arrival Jake Livermore
has always looked a little workmanlike at this level. It's not clear
that this unit will really miss the departing Darren Fletcher, but
whether it has the verve to push on to the next level is unclear. So,
too, is the purpose of signing Gareth Barry from Everton, though he may
(in Fletcher's stead) offer some
eminence grise in tough games.
There's
nothing terribly wrong with the defence, though Pulis has
opportunistically reinforced it with the loan signing of Egyptian
international Ahmed Hegazy, from Al-Ahly in his homeland. West Brom
benefit from excellent full-backs, with the under-rated Allan Nyom on
the right and Chris Brunt on the left. Brunt's left-footed delivery is,
of course, a sure source of goals and assists for the team, as sure as
was Rory Delap's long throw in an earlier era for Pulis. In the centre,
Craig Dawson is one of the best centre-backs outside the top six; in a
world where GBP80m is bid for Virgil van Dijk and Kyle Walker goes for
GBP50m, it's astonishing that Dawson and Nyom do not have more suitors
among the big clubs. If Hegazy can successfully change up a gear or two
from the Egyptian league then he may fill the second CB berth, though
this would be harsh on Jonny Evans; the former Manchester United man has
been almost as outstanding as Dawson. It wouldn't hurt to have some
backup options beyond Gareth McAuley, an outstanding servant but now 37,
and recruitment might be useful in goal where Ben Foster's form has
been solid rather than stellar these past few seasons. But it is hard to
fault this defensive unit, and Pulis will not want to shake it up.
The
model of stability, West Brom have had a quiet summer and have managed
to keep quality players like Phillips, Nyom and Dawson out of the
transfer gossip columns. At this stage the question is whether the
recruitment of Rodriguez will be enough to see this team unpicking
Premier League defences more regularly.
Strengths:
A solid team unit that could teach Theresa May what strong and stable
means. Excellent defence, useful if workmanlike midfield, talented but
mercurial wingers (aren't wingers always)?
Weaknesses:
Still don't have the assured 15-goal-a-season striker they really need.
Questions exist over how much further they can go without a serious
injection of funds and, in all fairness, over whether Pulis would be the
coach to take them there.
To sum up: There's
nothing to suggest this squad will cease to be good at what it's already
very good at, but no reason to expect a quantum leap in attacking
potency either. A mindset adjustment might see them fade less badly
toward the end of the season and could buy them a place or, at a pinch,
two. But we foresee another season of West Brom doing what they do.
Predicted finish: 10th
West Ham United
 |
| Bilic: he's got 99 problems |
All
sorts of problems beset West Ham last season, from new home blues at
the London Stadium, through the return of crowd trouble, to a defence
that just wouldn't stand up. A final finish in 11th place was tolerable,
but the goal difference was abysmal. By the end of the season, Slaven Bilic
was cramming as many defenders onto the field as he could, in a 5-3-2
formation - and it still didn't really work.
The recruitment of Pablo Zabaleta is a
sound solution for a problem position, and the issue of his age has
been overplayed. At 32, he still has two or three seasons in him and
brings years of Premier League experience. There haven't been any other
signings at the back, so Bilic presumably feels the cause of the leakiness
is tactical. Time will tell - the coach, a crack defender in his own
playing days, can presumably judge a good centre-half and has Winston
Reid, Angelo Ogbonna, James Collins and Jose Fonte to choose from. Even
if the latter two are older than Zabaleta, it's a respectable line-up. Behind them, Joe Hart is a
sensible recruit, still in his prime and with something left to prove.
West Ham's squad is quite a small one. Fans might have preferred to see some strengthening in the centre
of midfield, but this has not been Bilic's policy. The excellent Manuel
Lanzini is assured of his place as the side's creative focus, but
elsewhere in the centre the selection is uncertain. Captain Mark Noble
is an influential figure though somewhat lightweight, and Bilic will
need to evaluate what he offers against the steelier virtues of men like
Cheikhou Kouyate or Pedro Obiang.
The two big signings
have been up front. Javier Hernandez, who seems finally to have succeeded in getting
the British press to call him Chicharito, is a sensible signing for a
club that badly needed a proven striker last term. Marko Arnautovic, on
the other hand, looks ike a solution searching for a problem. But
if Bilic wants to play with a support striker or a narrow front three,
he's the man. On the wings, Andre Ayew (often played out of position at
striker) needs to be a more regular contributor, while Robert Snodgrass has key man potential but appears to be peripheral to his coach's plans. His signing from Hull
in the January window was one of the major reasons for the latter club's
eventual relegation. We expect first-team
opportunities for the talented but fitful Michail Antonio to be squeezed this season. In the wings lurks the hulking figure of Andy Carroll, should he return to fitness and form.
There's
been no radical surgery at West Ham, and they remain the very
definition of "not a bad side", with few distinctive strengths. Unless
Hernandez hits 20 or more, it's difficult to see them making progress
this term.
Strengths: Lanzini and, hopefully, Hernandez. Without the attacking talents of these two, times would be grim for West Ham.
Weaknesses: Few compelling options in midfield; ageing defence; small squad.
To sum up: Another season of bumbling along in need of a strategy. Bilic under pressure if they start to go backwards.
Predicted finish: 11th again
