Algeria
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| Slimani: high hopes |
Algeria squeaked through qualification after winning a
goal-happy playoff against Burkina Faso, courtesy of the away goals rule. The
3-3 aggregate draw may seem rather untypical of the “Fennec Foxes”, who
maintained a tight defence in their CAF qualifying group, but their group stage
opposition was weak, and one question over Algeria is how well this side can
maintain its defensive discipline against tougher opposition. Scoring goals may
be a problem too, as we’ll see. But a decent draw, with no giants of world
football to face in Group H, has given the Algerians hope, and they look far
from pure also-rans.
Coach Vahid Halilhodzic is known as something of a
tinkerman, so within his preferred 4-3-2-1 setup we could see any number of
possible combinations of personnel. That said, there is probably a clear first
choice for the striker’s role, where Islam Slimani has a solid record of 10
goals in 20 games. He stepped up this season from Algerian club football to
play for Sporting in Portugal, and has so far more than made the grade. He is
an out-and-out, natural striker, uncomplicated but skilful and capable of
scoring from anywhere. The other established forward in the squad, El Arabi
Soudani, is a natural at second striker, and may play on the left side of the
attack. There’s also Nabil Ghilas, of FC Porto, a burly striker who is
relatively new to the international scene. He likes to run from deep with the
ball, in a manner that may remind English fans-of-a-certain-age of one Stanley
V. Collymore. Ghilas is likely to begin the tournament as a reserve, however,
with Valencia attacking midfielder Sofiane Feghouli likely to start on the
right of the front three, where his range of tricks and turns will make him
Algeria’s best hope of cracking open World Cup defences.
In midfield the selection is likely to demonstrate a
cautious attitude, with a preference for ballwinners and markers who can
contain the opposition and generate opportunities to break. Hassan Yebda and
Saphir Taider are solid choices with good European club experience; Yebda has
crucial World Cup experience and will be the lynchpin of the midfield. Medhi
Lacen, who partnered Yebda in South Africa in 2010, is still in contention and
played in the crucial final qualifying game against Burkina Faso, but he will
be battling for selection this time with Adlene Guedioura, who was also in
South Africa and is an established presence in English football; Tottenham
youngster Nabil Bentaleb and defender/midfielder Carl Medjani will also be in
contention in this area of the park. There are more attacking options in
midfield, with Yacine Brahimi of Gernada and Abdelmoumen Djabou of domestic side Club Africaine available, but both are
likely to be used as options off the bench and will slot most neatly into the wider
attacking positions than into the heart of the midfield. The same probably
applies to Leicester winger Riyad Mahrez.
In defence,
captain Madjid Bougherra is a rare guaranteed starter and is another one of the
core of players with 2010 World Cup experience. He will be familiar to Rangers
fans, having spent three successful years at the club, and is actually one of
Algeria’s primary goal threats, from set pieces. The versatile Medjani is
probably his likeliest partner at centre-back, although Rafik Halliche has a
chance of getting the nod as he, too, offers World Cup experience. Liassine
Cadamuro, an Italian-Algerian born in France can also play here, although he’s
a natural right-back; and with enormous Watford centre-half Essaid Belkalem in
the squad, as well as Mehdi Mostefa (who can also play in midfield), there is
loads of cover. Indeed, with nine defenders in total, the shape of the squad
betrays “Coach Vahid’s” likely priorities. At right back, Djamel Mesbah is the
main man with his World Cup and Italian club experience, with Alissa Mandi of
Reims a new challenger. Napoli’s Faouzi Ghoulam is first choice left back,
while Mohamed Zemmamouche has recently displaced 2010 veteran Rais M’Bolhi –
also in the squad – between the posts.
Algeria can’t be
written off. They’ve got their work cut out for them against Korea, Belgium and
Russia, but at the same time there’s probably no other group they’d rather have
been drawn in. They will certainly be able to field an experienced, crafty and,
hopefully, organised unit which will be solid in defence and comfortable on the
ball. What is lacking is any real sign of individual brilliance, and on
Feghouli’s slim shoulders rest virtually all of the team’s hopes of carving out
opportunities in open play. He will need to be on form, or else Algeria will be
hoping for counter-attacking opportunities, mistakes and set-pieces. Wobbles
against Burkina Faso notwithstanding, we think Algeria will prove a decent
defensive unit, and while we’re not prepared to tip them to qualify, they could
prove a serious impediment to the hopes of Russia and Belgium in particular.
Strengths: Loads of experience; decent backup in most
positions; flexible approach; organisation and solidity. We think.
Weaknesses: Lack of star quality – it’s not clear where the
chances will come from. Few players established at very top level. Only one out
and out no.9, in Slimani, though he looks like a good player.
Young player to watch: Bentaleb is a lively and highly promising
midfielder who will fit well into Algeria’s system. Stretching the definition
of “young” a bit, Ghilas at 24 is an exciting player looking for a
breakthrough.
Verdict: A group stage exit is likely – but far from inevitable.
Belgium
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| Courtois: Europe's best |
You can call us Belgium sceptics, I guess. That they are
still hailed as “dark horses” is remarkable, really; you can trek days by camel
train into the depths of the desert and meet isolated, oasis-hopping Berber
tribesmen who, in between sharing tokes on the sheesha, will chat for hours
about how Belgium have a fairly handy First XI. Yes, everyone knows they are a
decent side, but a realistic shout for the World Cup? We think that’s
stretching it. Belgium have two problems. The first is that their current
generation is almost entirely untested at this level. The last tournament for
which Belgium qualified was, almost unbelievably, the 2002 World Cup, and
gangling Bayern benchman Daniel van Buyten is the only current squad member who
travelled to Japan/Korea. The second issue is that behind an impressive First XI,
and save in one or two positions like goalkeeper, Belgium have little depth of
quality. Injuries or suspensions could hit them hard, and even as it is, their
starting team contains two converted centre-backs at full-back. The draw has
been kind to Belgium, giving them every chance of getting through the group,
but expectations may have grown to unrealistic levels now.
Taking it from the top, the withdrawal of Christian Bentecke
leaves Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku pretty much unchallenged at centre-forward. Although
Bentecke was coach Marc Wilmots’ first choice, Lukaku looks to us a more
complete player, and more likely to make the adjustment to the environment of
World Cup football. The only backup to Lukaku, in fact, is young Divock Origi,
a raw 19 year old who has only one season as a first teamer under his belt at
Lille. Belgium look heavily reliant on Lukaku to stay fit, although they don’t
actually rely on him for too many goals; with six in 29 internationals, his
goalscoring record for the national side is not spectacular. A big part of his
role, however, is to play with back to goal and bring others in; Belgium scored
lots of goals in qualifying but they spread them around. Except for van Buyten,
there’s nobody in the squad who’s into double figures. In practice, a lot of the goal will come from modern
superwingers Eden Hazard and Kevin de Bruyne, both on decent club form although
Hazard, in particular, is seen as having under-delivered at international
level. Everton’s Kevin Mirallas and Napoli’s Dries Mertens are essentially
understudies to de Bruyne and Hazard; Mirallas can also play as a striker, and
is the only obvious third choice in that position, but it does not naturally
suit his deep-dropping, dribbling style. Finally, in attack, Adnan Januzaj dealt
Kosovan football a blow by deciding to play for Belgium at the last minute
before this World Cup; his apparent stroll into the World Cup squad ruffled a
few feathers and we don’t see him getting a starting berth just yet.
Like many teams who prefer 4-3-3, Belgium play a highly
combative midfield trio behind their buzzing attack. There’s still plenty of
silk to go with the steel, though. Moussa Dembele will start in one of the
midfield roles; the Tottenham man has no shortage of fans to sing his endless praises
at either club or national level, but in truth he has yet to really make his
mark on the game. He does have an impressively complete range of skills,
though, and is consistent if rarely spectacular for Belgium in a box-to-box
role. A good World Cup would take him to the next level. Dembele’s clubmate,
Nacer Chadli, has seen plenty of game-time alongside, and is an overtly
attacking choice, but when the chips are down Wilmots seems to prefer Porto’s
Steven Defour, who offers more defensive resistance. Between and behind Dembele
and Defour, Axel Witsel will start in the deep lying position where he was
ever-present in qualifying. While we don’t generally do pop trivia in our World
Cup previews, it delights us to tell you that Witsel was named after Eddie
Murphy’s character in Beverley Hills Cop.
Although Wilmots, like the entire Belgian technical coaching setup in fact, is
wedded to 4-3-3 as the national formation, there are options to switch up or
down in midfield. The default is to play with Witsel deep and then to push
Dembele and Defour or, especially, Chadli, on a bit; but there’s also the
option of dropping the two back and bringing in a no.10, which could be the
rumbustious Marouane Fellaini – surely desperate for a decent World Cup after a
totally counterproductive move to Manchester United – or could be almost any of
the winger/forwards, especially de Bruyne.
The centre of the defence is a real area of strength for
Belgium, with an imposing trio made up of Manchester City’s steadfast Vincent
Kompany, Arsenal’s Thomas Vermaelen (on his day, the best footballing
centre-back in the world for our money – and that includes Mats Hummels) and
Thibaut Courtois, who was probably the best goalkeeper in Europe this season.
On the flanks however there is a slightly odd situation in which natural
centre-backs Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen play at right and left back
respectively. Each is a good defender, but they are being played out of
position, and there are limits, we think, to how far the notion of the modern
total footballer can be stretched. It will be interesting to see how Belgium
cope with pace and overlap down the flanks, especially since Hazard, in
particular, is not exactly the model of the backtracking winger who helps his
fullback. For all that, Belgium conceded very few goals in qualifying, in a
difficult group. Curiously, this team with centre-backs for full-backs has,
among its reserve defenders, at least two full-backs who can step in at
centre-back: Laurent Ciman and Nico Lombaerts. Anthony Vanden Borre is a backup
option at right back while the veteran van Buyten is a reassuring reserve in
the centre and will likely be first pick if one of the starting defenders
struggles. That Wilmots has taken eight defenders to the World Cup suggests a
curious lack of confidence in his setup in this department, and it’s especially
strange when one considers that Ciman hasn’t played for Belgium since 2011 and
Lombaerts has played only one international in two years. It’s not clear why
Wilmots wants to carry what looks like dead wood in this area. There is an
excellent backup goalkeeper, on the other hand, in Liverpool’s agile, if
occasionally slightly erratic, Simon Mignolet.
Although Belgium are perceived as a young side on the rise,
this may yet turn out to be their best shot at the World Cup. Although a lot of
the attacking players – Hazard, de Bruyne, Lukaku – are young, Dembele, Defour,
Fellaini, Kompany, Vermaelen and Vertonghen will all be 30 or older in 2018.
With this amount of quality in its prime, you have to wonder how Belgium
managed not to qualify for Euro 2012 or the 2010 World Cup, and it seems a
shame because there’s now a lot of pressure on this generation to make the most
of what may be its only shot at the World Cup. Belgium have the quality, on
paper, of a good tip for the semi-finals; they have the reputation of dark
horses; but in terms of tournament form they are pure wild cards.
Strengths: Very
high quality players with top club experience, distributed evenly throughout
the team; togetherness and stability with a clear system and first choice
selection; hugely dynamic midfield and a solid heart to the defence.
Weaknesses: Lack
of tournament experience; pressure and weight of expectations; lack of options
at centre-forward; lack of quality backup; questionable selection at full-back;
Wilmots doesn’t have a reputation as a particularly tactical or adaptable
coach.
Young player to
watch: Hazard could be one of the real stars of this World Cup, and if
Belgium do well, he will be at the centre of things. Also, keep an eye out for
Januzaj, who starred in this year’s Champions’ League.
Verdict: Belgium
have what it takes to win their group, and dealt easily in qualifying with
sides the equal of Russia or South Korea. In the second round they will play
whoever escapes Group G in second place, and look capable of handling that. We
think things may get too tough for them in the quarters, though if everyone
stays fit and plays well they could go further.
Russia
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| We love Alan |
The second big weakness is a tendency to waste their best stars. For a big country, Russia doesn’t produce top flight footballing talent in great quantities, so it’s disappointing that Andrew Arshavin, for instance, ended up falling so far short of his world class potential. The same risks happening to Alan Dzagoev, an absolutely sublime player who on his day is one of the world’s two or three best attacking central midfielders. He sparkled at Euro 2012 but has since fallen from favour with Fabio Capello, a coach whose emphasis (in our view, over-emphasis) on discipline does not sit well with the volatile Dazgoev. He’s made the squad and it will be interesting to see if and where he plays; his club play him in a holding role, which seems a waste of his formidable attacking qualities; we see him as an advanced playmaker, a midfield no.10. Russia need Dzagoev at his best, and it’s not clear Capello is the right coach to extract that from him.
With or without Dzagoev’s backup, Russia’s strikers (only one of whom is likely to play at any one time) have their work cut out. The man of the hour is Dinamo Moscow’s 23-year-old hit man Alexander Korkorin. Side-parted and serious-looking in the classic USSR mould, Korkorin looks amazing in those YouTube collages where three-second bursts of skill are interwoven to a dreamy eurocheese soundtrack. It will be interesting to see whether he’s that good in real life; he seems to have a knack of making finishing look easy, but isn’t in fact yet a really prolific goalscorer. He’s likely to start, although we marginally prefer Alexander Kerzhakov for the target man role. Kerzhakov, of Zenit, is something of a Russian Alan Shearer figure; a top scorer domestically, his form has been somewhat intermittent at international level; his playing style is even reminiscent of the famous English no.9. He had a disappointing Euro 2012 and has probably slipped from his previously assured starting position. 22-year-old striker Maksim Kanunnikov is very much the backup option, and is mainly here for the experience, having made his international debut only in May.
Capello hasn’t become football’s Mr Exciting since his rather dismal tenure as England boss, and his midfield setup starts from defensive principles, with one or two screening players in either a 4-2-3-1 formation, or the world’s least attacking 4-1-4-1. To be fair to Capello, this provided a good platform in qualifying, where Russia prospered primarily by virtue of a stern defence. The key screening man is Denis Glushakov, although former captain Igor Denisov also plays here and could either be an alternative to Glushakov, or play alongside him if a very stiff midfield is sought. More likely, a key central role in either formation will go to new captain Roman Shirokov. Now 32, Shirokov is noted for his defensive qualities but has a very tidy pass on him and grabs more than his fair share of goals, often from range. To provide a more overtly attacking presence in the centre of midfield, we could see the third central slot taken by Viktor Fayzulin of Zenit, who likes to get into the box. However, if Dzagoev plays for Russia, it’ll be here, and Fayzulin will be the man to make way. On the left of the midfield we will see Yuri Zhirkov, now returned from his tour with Chelsea, who will combine with attacking left-back Dmitri Kombarov to launch attacks. Tricky attacking midfielder Oleg Shatov could also play out wide, although he’s probably a reserve, as is Aleksei Ionov on the right wing where Alexander Samedov will be first choice.
At the back, it starts with Igor Akinfeev, still undisputed first choice despite some Joe Hart-style wobbles in form. In front of him, it’s an experienced though not exactly pacy combination, with Sergei Ignashevich (34 years old, 94 caps) and Vasili Berezutski (31, 76 caps) still the first choice pairing. Andrei Zenyonov and the hard-sounding Vladimir Granat are the reserve centre-backs while CSKA Moscow’s energetic and tenacious Georgi Schennikov is a rival for Kombarov on the left. World Soccer magazine tells us that Schennikov’s dad won an Olympic silver medal for walking, but fear not, young Georgi has more pace. At right back there’s no undisputed first choice, as Alezander Anyukov, the long time holder of the position, has drifted from favour and didn’t make the squad. Instead, Dinamo’s Alexei Kozlov will slug it out with Anzhi’s Andrei Yeschenko.
Russia were extraordinarily mean during the first half of their qualifying campaign, starting to concede a few goals over the second half. Still, they let in only 5 in 10 games in total. Capello will be looking to use defence as a firm platform from which to snaffle tight wins. The side actually scored plenty in qualifying, but mainly against weak opposition, and attack looks like Russia’s weakness. There’s an overall lack of creativity, especially if Dzagoev doesn’t start, and not a huge amount of pace; much will depend on the form of Korkorin and Kerzhakov. Russian pundits have raised doubts about the fitness of the players, which rather subverts the stereotype of the well-drilled Russian super-athlete. If they can hold their shape, they may escape the group, but we do not expect great things.
Strengths: Experience at the back; solid defensive shape and good players available across the defence and defensive midfield.
Weaknesses: Lack of international exposure at club level for many of the players; limited attacking talent and a tendency to waste what they have.
Young player to watch: Korkorin
Verdict: Could escape a group in which the battle for second place is quite open, but we slightly prefer South Korea.
South Korea
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| Go on my Son |
In the years since the breakthrough 2002 World Cup, East
Asian football has failed somewhat to kick on and force its way into the top
tier of the international game; and arguably no team has disappointed more than
the one that did best in 2002, South Korea. Unimpressive in qualifying, the
Koreans have not played a competitive game for a year, now, and the form in
friendlies has been disappointing. Despite highlights like wins over Greece and
Switzerland, the Koreans’ form against the kind of opposition who will make up
their peer group at the World Cup has mostly been poor, with defeats against
Ghana, Mexico, and the USA. It’s not a classic Korea side, and the squad looks
quite transitional, but with only a moderately challenging group draw the
second round is still a real possibility.
In defence, Jung Sung-ryun is still first choice despite
doubts about his form. Kim Seung-gyu of Ulsan Hyundai is his main challenger.
Coach Hong Myung-bo – a World Cup legend as a player himself – will then play a
four-man defence in which his namesake Hong Jeong-ho has established himself as
the new star. HE has recently trodden the well-worn path from Korea to the
Bundesliga and established himself at Augsburg. Alongside him in what’s likely
to be a youthful centre-back pairing is Kim Young-gwon, who plays his football
in the PRC, under Marcello Lippi at China’s new club force, Guangzhou Evergrande.
In terms of talent, this is one of the strongest areas of the Korean squad, but
inexperience is a potential issue. At right back there’s a bit of choice, with
Lee Yong of Ulsan Hyundai an aggressive attacking presence who will help Korea
launch their preferred counter-attacks; but Hwang Seok-ho of Japan’s Sanfrecce
Hiroshima is an option too, as is enthusiastic overlapper Kim Chang-soo of Kashiwa Reysol. At
left-back, Hong has ignored the claims of rising star Kim Jin-su, and taken Yun Suk-young, whose career has stalled a
little since moving to QPR, and Park Joo-ho of Mainz. Park’s Bundesliga
experience may sway the balance in his favour, although Yong Lee can also play
on this side. It’s not an especially experienced defensive unit, it must be
said, and for a team who will probably rely on sitting back to create room for
counter-attacks, its ability to withstand sustained pressure must be a concern.
There’s also a lack of backup in the middle of defence with only the veteran
Kwak Tae-hwi as a reserve centre-backup.
There’s a bit
more established star quality in midfield where Ki Sung-yueng, of Swansea and
latterly Sunderland, is probably the team’s key player. He has been successful
in English football, and plays deep for Korea, both screening the defence and
dictating the play. His partner in a 4-2-3-1 formationis to be determined. If
Hong wants to put someone a bit angry in there, then the tough-tackling but
slightly unpredictable Park Jung-woo is an option, as might be the somewhat
more placid Han Kook-young. Ha Dae-sung of Beijing Guoan can also play in the
withdrawn role but is probably seen mainly as a deputy to Ki. Finally, Bolton’s
talented Lee Chung-yong has played deep, as a playmaker, but he’s no enforcer,
and it’s doubtful that Hong will be feeling generous enough to sacrifice
ballwinning capability in that part of the field.
The attack will
probably consist of three attacking midfielders behind a single centre-forward.
Like their Asian rivals Japan, Korea have a host of pacy and technically skilled
options in the advanced part of midfield. The “Sonsation”, Son Heung-min,
probably has his hands on the leftmost position, although he could also play on
the right, A classic counter-attacker, his aggressive running and precision
shooting could be among Korea’s best weapons. Bolton’s Lee may play on the
right side; with years of English league experience with Bolton now (albeit
mostly second-flight), he has pace and plenty of skills in his locker, although
we suspect his passing is his greatest strength, meaning he might be more
effective in that deeper role he probably won’t get. Alternatives in this area
of the field are replete. In the centre – behind the striker – Koo Ja-cheol of
Mainz may get the nod although Cardiff’s Kim Bo-kyoung is also in contention.
There’s also Ji Dong-won; the former Sunderland man is still young at 23 and
has recovered his form since some disappointing seasons at Sunderland, earning
a move to Dortmund from Augsburg this summer. He’s not in serious contention
for the no.9 role, but he’s versatile enough to play anywhere behind it. The
role of centre-forward will probably go to Arsenal’s Park Chu-young, never
really prolific at club level but a reliable goal threat for Korea. He seems a
little short of top flight quality but his only real rival here is big Kim
Shin-wook, “The Wookie”, a 6ft 6 target man in the old school mode. Despite his
height, Kim doesn’t rely solely on aerial threat, and has balls skills; but
don’t expect that to stop Korea aiming balls for his bonce if he comes on late
in games when Korea are chasing. Lee Keun-ho, who plays domestically and is a
serving member of the army, is also in the squad as yet another option in that
“second striker” role, somewhere in the middle or on the right of the attacking
midfield.
Unheralded and on
dubious form though they may be, we like look of Korea’s mobile and technical
attack. Though sputtering performances in the friendlies – including blanks
drawn against Ghana, Tunisia, the US and Mexico – hardly suggest a fearsome
goalscoring machine, but friendlies are, for want of a deeper level of
analysis, funny things. In the heat of the World Cup we fancy Korea to make the
odd goal, but it will probably come on the break, where pace and movement can
be exploited. Belgium will attack hard, and may allow for this kind of
counter-punch, while Algeria look beatable; Russia, on the other hand, might
outmuscle the Koreans. The big worry for a counter-attacking side is that the
defence is inexperienced and may buckle under pressure; the attack, on the
other hand, is quite experienced, with most of the options having over 20 caps.
Strengths: Pace; technical qualities of the midfield and
attack; plenty of experience in forward areas.
Weaknesses: Poor form; uncertain selection in midfield;
inexperienced defence; lack of a really top quality centre-forward.
Young player to watch: Son Heung-min
Verdict: With seemingly enough in attack to trouble anyone in this group, we make
the Koreans our pick for second place. They seem unlikely to get the better of
whoever they face in the second round from Group G, however.
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