Germany
Who’d have thought it. After finally becoming a gifted
attacking side who are heaven to watch, Germany seem to have lost the knack of
winning. The 2010 generation are still young though, such was their precocity
last time, and the production line has kept churning, offering up new additions
to the squad like Mario Goetze and Mats Hummels. But nobody needs a lecture on
the potential embodied in Germany’s playing staff. It’s time to deliver.
Quite a lot was made of coach Joachim Low’s decision to take
only one “recognised striker” to the World Cup, in Miroslav Klose. In fact,
this twists the truth a bit; it’s not as if Lukas Podolski or Thomas Muller are
strangers to the front line. Low likes to keep the dividing line between
midfield and attack fluid, and to rotate his players between different
positions. Nonetheless it’s fair to observe that the rest of Germany’s squad
isn’t as lavishly equipped as the midfield, something that has strangely been
exacerbated by the tendency to convert strikers (Podolski) and defenders
(Philipp Lahm) to middlemen. Low, nothing if not the modern coach, will almost
certainly play one man up front and it’s going to boil down to a choice between
an orthodox centre forward (Klose or perhaps Muller) or that trendiest of tactical
contrivances, the “False 9”.
You’ve got to hope it’s the former, especially for
the likeable Klose who is chasing the World Cup goalscoring record, but the
latter option might see the deft and creative Goetze make an impact. Muller, on
the whole, is more likely to play on the right of the three in a 4-2-3-1, with
Ozil in the middle. On the left side, the loss of Marco Reus to a last-minute
injury has deprived the Germans of a bit of genuine pace, as well as goal
threat and a lively haircut. In his absence, there’s the similarly spiky (in
attitude and coiffure) Andre Schuerrle, or a more direct option in Podolski;
Goetze has also played over there, which illustrates the sheer versatility of
Germany’s multi-talented, adaptable roster. The formation can drop back to
4-3-2-1 or even step up to 4-1-4-1. In this setup, the bay-faced Goetze is
perhaps the world’s most sumptuously talented utility man, but he is sure to
feature. It would be fair to observe that for all their gifts, German’s running
men, like Ozil and Reus, tend to beat their man as much with pace and
anticipation as with trickery, and there’s nothing wrong with that; but Goetze
is an exception. What he lacks in outright speed he makes up in balance, change
of pace and touch; to watch him on the run is to be reminded of Gascoigne or
Kinkladze in their primes. His youthful charm is increased by his endearing
habit of just walking off looking embarrassed after scoring stunning goals.
With Schalke’s Julian Draxler offering yet another option, there is creativity
and goal threat all over this team.
With all these talents buzzing around up front, and a
defence that sometimes goes to sleep (we’ll come to that) a fair bit of
responsibility is vested in the deep lying midfield two. It’s still not exactly
a unit of cloggers however. Toni Kroos likes to burst forward on any side of
the pitch, more like a deep lying Ozil than a Pirlo style withdrawn playmaker.
So untypical is he of a German central midfielder, he even does tricks and
stuff. Bastian Schweinsteiger, who seems assured of one of the slots in this
part of the midfield, is also an all-action player who likes to attack as much
as to defend. The only established player offering a “pure” holding option, in
fact, is Sami Khedira, now seemingly recovered from a bad injury, unless Low
takes the slightly ludicrous option of putting Lahm in deep midfield. That
seems like an unattractive option given that Germany don’t have anyone even
approaching their captain’s world-class quality at full back. The lower reaches
of German world cup squads are often an obscurantist’s dream (Serdar Tasci from
2010, anyone? Dennis Aogo? Cacau?) but that’s not really the case this time;
there are however a couple of young defensive options in Christoph Kramer and
Matthias Ginter.
Defence is the weak spot, right? Maybe. Certainly, a couple
of rather concessionary results lately (a 4-4 draw and a 5-3 victory against
Sweden, a 4-3 loss to the USA) suggest a bit of doziness can creep in at times.
Germany definitely don’t keep as many clean sheets as you’d expect. They do
tend to tighten up against stronger opposition though. Neuer in goal, and Lahm
probably at right-back, are world class, but it’s fair to say that Jerome
Boateng and Per Mertesacker – both seemingly
undisputed first choices despite the impressive claim of Hummels – don’t
set any worlds on fire. Marcel Schmelzer was the leading option at left back,
but with his withdrawal the field is open to Erik Durm, a tenacious 22-year-old
who’s rarely beaten even when up against quicker players. Alternatively, with
Dortmund’s Kevin Grosskreutz able to sit on the right, Lahm could come across
to his old left-side turf. Youngster Shkodran Mustafi, from Sampdoria, offers
back-up at centre-back, as does Schalke captain Benedikt Howedes either there
or on the right. Neuer’s deputies as custodian are Dortmund’s Roman
Wiedenfeller, recently an international debutant at 33, and the younger
Ron-Robert Zieler of Hanover.
Germany’s transition is complete. Yesterday’s pragmatic,
thunder-thighed box-to-box men with rude-sounding surnames have been replaced
by a generation of blonde-tipped waifs who seem to surf and glide through
defences as trippy ambient French synth music plays in the background. So what’s the catch? Well, as yet, this lot
do seem strangers to the old Germanic dark art of winning. Some of the
explanations offered for this are rather unconvincing. There is no problem
whatsoever with the personnel – not even the defence, which may not be
star-studded (or always consistent) but has held up well enough in tournament
play. There would be goals all over the team even if they didn’t have any
strikers, but they actually do. Nor is it really possible to find fault with
Germany’s mentality. Lothar Matthaus has said that they seem to lack a “nasty
character” or two, to give them steel, but the Bayern and Dortmund players
shouldn’t be strangers to winning by now. No, if you want an explanation for
Germany’s recent tendency to fall just short then you need to look at Joachim
Low’s tactics. Despite his reputation and his love of somewhat showy
innovations like the false nine, it’s arguably that the Bundestrainer has yet to get it right against the world’s best. A
lot of his earlier wins – such as 2010’s wallopings of Argentina and England –
came through the use of counter-attacking football, exploiting space left by
naïve opponents. That kind of Germany has typically come unstuck when faced
with cannier opposition, be it the hard-faced defenders of Italy or the mastery
of possession shown by Spain. Low needs to do better, and with Bayern in
particular now playing Barcelona-style, high-pressing, possession-cycling
football, he has the opportunity. This is his big test.
Finally, we couldn’t get through a Germany preview without
mentioning the slapstick nightmare that has been their world cup preparation.
Niggling injuries were still affecting Klose, Schweinsteiger, Lahm and others a
mere couple of weeks before kickoff, and after the hubris of the DFB’s
commissioning of a purpose-built training camp (seriously, guys?) the actual
warmup has been dogged by mishap, not to mention hit-and-miss form in
friendlies. However, the fuss over
injuries has subsided (and the talent pool is in any event deep) and a certain
calm has started to settle. Germany aren’t easily unnerved, not even this new
Germany, and we think it’ll be alright for them on the night.
Strengths: Crack
midfield; generally outstanding quality of personnel; goals from everywhere;
lots of tournament experience and a team packed full of winners from Bayern and
Dortmund.
Weaknesses: Lack
of a system that truly brings the best out of them – Low’s tactics are under
scrutiny; many key players dogged by niggling injury; not an absolute wealth of
talent in attack, with Klose ageing; defence sometimes error-prone.
Young player to
watch: Get yourself in the mood by watching Mario Goetze sketch his
beautiful shapes to some dreamy music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vopvneA7L_U
Verdict: Could
get turned over by either of Ghana or the USA, which could make things lively;
but likely to raise their game against Portugal. They’ll get through the group
and then they’re quite likely to progress to the semis. Another team with an
easyish draw. Up there with Brazil and Argentina.
Ghana
Having come agonizingly close to being the first African
side to reach a World Cup semi-final, Ghana’s hopes of doing even better this
time have been dented slightly by a tough draw and by the fact that so many of
their stars from 2010 have failed to press on to great things at club level.
For us they remains something of a wild card; there is enough verve in the side
for them to do damage if things click, but the likes of Asamoah Gyan and Sulley
Muntari have a lot of work still to do to prove they’re not just one-hit
wonders at this level.
The mercurial Gyan remains the focal point of Ghana’s
attack. His goalscoring form at international level has never been matched by
his achievements in his club career, which has not really taken off. At 28 he
is playing in the UAE for al-Ain, and he may be looking at the World Cup as one
last shot at a big move. Powerful and mobile, his only serious rival for the
centre-forward slot is Abdul Majeed Waris, an exciting prospect who has spent the
last few months scoring regularly for Valenciennes in France. The two might
well play together however as Waris could also play on the right of attack in
either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation. In the latter role however, Waris would
need to unseat the established Andre Ayew of Marseille. A versatile and dynamic
deep-lying forward, Ayew – the son of Ghanaian legend Abedi Pele – gets plenty
of goals for his club, Marseille, in a central role, but is a winger for his
country. Ayew’s brother Jordan is also in the squad, as a backup striker. The
left side of attack meanwhile belongs to Juventus’ Kwadwo Asamoah. He is
another versatile, pacy presence, and likes to roam about. The Prince of Ghana’s
all-action attacking midfield is Boateng, often listed as a forward for his
country although that doesn’t really capture the role he plays. He may have
found his true calling, actually, as a modern box-to-box no.10, useful both as
support for Gyan in the striking role and as a marker for deep-lying playmakers
like Toni Kroos or Joao Moutinho. Boateng’s Wikipedia page, by the way, is a
goldmine of linguistic innovations, highlighting among other things the
German-born action man’s “footspeed” and “tempestuous sliding tackles”.
Successful at Milan, he also seems to have had a spell at Tottenham a few years
ago, but nobody can remember this actually happening.
Behind Boateng in the heart of the Black Stars’ midfield
will sit two other Milan players, both with huge experience: Michael Essien and
Sulley Muntari. Injury denied Essien his part in the glorious campaign of 2010,
when he would have been in his prime, a prime which seems to have been only two
brief; in the memory, Essien rose rapidly and peaked early. Injuries played a
big part, and in nine years at Chelsea he was never the consistent, domineering
force he might have been. However, he is playing regular football now and can
still be a force; this World Cup could be more than just a farewell tour for
him. Muntari on the other hand has experience of two World Cups and is the
senior man in the squad, with more than 80 caps. However, despite picking up
two Serie A titles and a Champions’ League in his time under Jose Mourinho at
Inter, he has overall fallen short of greatness at club level, often struggling
to consistently be selected. At his best though, he is a fizzing presence with
an eye for the late run into the box, something that may be useful on the
counter. The Ghana squad also boasts a couple of emerging midfield generals
competing to take Essien’s place when he steps back – Rabiu Mohammed and
Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu, the latter one of the latest Ghanaians to enter European
football via the established staging-post of Udinese. There must be a
production line in Ghana turning out this kind of uber-midfielder, because Afriyie
Acquah is in the same mould. Even though the first option for a change of shape
is probably to pull Boateng back and push the wingers forward into a 4-3-3, any
of these guys could get time in the engine room as deputy for Muntari or
Essien. For more attacking rotations in midfield, Ayew and Asamoah may find
themselves under pressure from less experienced options Christian Atsu – of Chelsea,
but loaned this season to Vitesse – or London-born Albert Adomah, whose progress
to the World Cup must delight those who were watching him at League Two Barnet
only a few short seasons ago. Both of these guys have a useful eye for goal. In
a midfield squad that seems absurdly well-equipped with anchor men and left
wingers, Mubarak Wakaso is another option on the flank. Fond of cutting inside,
he has 7 goals in 17 caps for Ghana and is often seen running like a train
through defences in the Russian league, where he plays for Rubin Kazan.
Defensive shape is fairly settled for Ghana, albeit that the
players making up the flat-four rearguard don’t quite have the same pedigree as
the forwards. Daniel Opare of Standard Liege at right back, the French based
pair of John Boye (Rennes) and Jonathan Mensah (Evian) in the middle, and Harrison
Afful, who plays in Tunisia for Esperance, on the left, are all fairly assured
of their places. There isn’t a great deal of backup, with fullback Samuel
Inkoom and young centre-half Rashid Sumaila the reserves. Probably Ghana’s
greatest asset is Norwegian-born keeper Adam Kwarasey, a solid performer in
Norway for a while now – he must be due a big move. He may keep out Fatau
Dauda, who was first choice for the qualifiers.
Although their squad contains a lot of what looks like
unfulfilled potential, Ghana still look like a decent counter-attacking unit to
us. In qualifying they scored plenty of goals, and if Essien and Muntari an
effectively screen the defence and spring quick breaks down the flanks, then
they will be a threat. Boateng’s ability to add muscle to the defensive side of
midfield, and then get forward, will be a boon. On the other hand, their group
contains three other primarily counter-attacking sides, who may not give Ghana
a lot of room to play; the question of whether Ghana are really good enough to
unlock German or Portugal is a tough one.
Strengths:
Experience; pace on the break; it’s a youthful side with most players in or
approaching their prime years.
Weaknesses: This
isn’t a team of particularly skewed abilities; overall the issue may simply be
a lack of absolute top-end quality at both the business ends of the field. A
number of players have had disappointing or intermittent club careers,
suggesting consistency might be an issue.
Yong player to watch:
Wakaso has a real chance of getting game time at the expense of Ayew or
Asamoah, and scores goals.
Verdict We think
they’ll raise their game for the World Cup again, and will be good enough to
see off Portugal for second place here.
Portugal
Can a one man team win a World Cup? No. It’s only ever
happened once, in 1986, and to quote Jarvis Cocker, things were very different
then. And if you do want to attempt it, we’re not entirely sure that Cristiano
Ronaldo is the one man you need. We’re not casting aspersions on his impressive
athleticism and range of technical skills, and nor can we challenge his
imperious goalscoring record at Madrid. But in our view the Madeiran maestro
remains first and foremost a supremely confident executor of chances,
particularly on the counter-attack; a ruthless exploiter of weakness. His
style, which emphasizes lightning quick runs into space and dead ball assaults
after fouls have been given away, is not as suited as is Messi’s (or as was
Maradona’s) to carving opportunities in the tightest situations against the
best opponents. Although he had a decent Euro 2012, there’s also the suspicion
that he tends to fall slightly short on the big occasion; even in that
tournament, he failed to show much form against Spain in the semi-final, and
got his calculations badly wrong in the penalty shoot-out.
In any event – as the quicker-tempered among you are no
doubt now foaming at the mouth to point out – it Is unfair to refer to this
Portugal side as a one man team. With Madrid’s Pepe and Fabio Coentrao in the
back line and Joao Moutinho in midfield, as well as new arrival William
Carvalho, Portugal have a core of established personnel that will make them
competitive at almost any level. On the other hand, it’s unclear what level of
genuine attacking threat they will pose, beyond Ronaldo on the left. His regular
opposite number, Nani, is a similar player with analogous strengths and
weaknesses, but lacks the domineering club form; he has had another difficult
season and gets few games at Manchester United. Nani was subdued in qualifying,
where he scored only one goal (it’s worth noting that Ronaldo was also not on
heavy-scoring form, save for a hat-trick in Belfast). Between them Portugal
play a fairly traditional no.9, with the enduring Helder Postiga first choice.
Somewhat unfairly a figure of humour in England where he capped an epically
disappointing season with Spurs by scoring against England at Euro 2004, he has
persisted, and has a decent goalscoring record internationally. Alternatives at
centre forward are the familiar, burly figure of Hugo Almeida, and his fellow
power-forward Eder. The latter is a fairly new face in the set-up; something of
a “unit” in terms of physique, he has enough pace and skill not to need to
reply on brute force, but has yet to score at international level. The worry
will be that the strikers won’t offer quite enough of a cutting edge against
the very best of opposition. Meanwhile, backup turbo-winger Silvestre Varela
(very reminiscent in style of Antonio Valencia) offers little threat to
Ronaldo’s place, but either he or the more twinkle-toed Adelino Vieirinha might
feasibly displace Nani.
In midfield the lynchpin and playmaker is Moutinho, a player
of subtlety and sometimes delight who can do his work anywhere between the goal
lines; he offers vision, passing range and the ability to carry the ball, as
well as sound positional sense. There is however the slight feeling that in
choosing to spend his prime years with Monaco in Lique 1, Moutinho has somehow
ducked the chance of testing himself against the very best at club level.
Alongside him is likely to sit the more functional (and visually unmistakable)
Raul Meireles of Fenerbahe, and Dynamo Kiev’s Miguel Veloso. Beckham-like midfield
heart-throb Veloso retains a superb delivery and a ferocious long-range shot,
but in a side that seems to be slipping slightly from the very cutting edge,
it’s worth noting that neither he nor Meireles any longer plays at the very top
level of European club football. It’s a first choice midfield three with a fair
bit of class but not that much sparkle, and combined with the brutal style of
Ronaldo and fairly utilitarian nature of his attacking colleagues, it does
again highlight a possible lack of goals. Carvalho, a promising addition to the
squad, likes to sit deep so he won’t change that directly, but he may enable a
shift to 4-2-3-1, and has an eye for the penetrating playmaker’s ball. That’s
the main option for change of shape, with dependable backup man Ruben Amorim, a
seasoned Europa League campaigner with Benfica also in the squad. Braga’s young
attacking midfielder Rafa Silva, blessed with a frightening turn of pace,
travels as well and would be an option at no.10 in a 4-2-3-1, or potentially
another rival for Nani’s spot; he is likely to figure as an impact substitution
at first.
At the back some doubts persist about Pepe, in his prime as
a centre-back at 31 but slipping out of favour a Madrid. Leaving club troubles
aside, however, he remains a high quality and experienced defender whose
qualities will be valuable at this level. Expect Bruno Alves, now of
Fenerbahce, to be his starting partner; with Ricardo Costa and Luis Neto in
reserve, this is an area of the pith where Portugal, somewhat unusually, have
reasonable depth, with any two from these four likely to make a decent pairing.
Seemingly assured of their places, barring disaster, are Rui Patricio in goal
and Fabio Coentrao at left-back. The latter forms an impressive left flank with
Ronaldo, his club-mate at Madrid; although he didn’t have the best of seasons
overall at Madrid, his confidence will be buoyed by a victorious appearance in
the Champions’ League final. All-Madrid combinations down the left may be
crucial, and Coentrao himself has plenty to offer going forward. Joao Pereira
is the experienced first choice at right-back and Benfica’s Andre Almeida
offers backup for either fullback position. Defence looks like the strongest
part of the team for Portugal; they also have the benefit of an unusually
experienced reserve keeper in Eduardo, who distinguished himself at the 2010
World Cup.
Ronaldo’s star power means that people associate Portugal
with goals, but in truth their form at tournaments tends to emulate that of
their captain and talisman; excellent at flat-track bullying weaker sides, they
tend to clam up a bit when facing sterner opposition. They do tend to be a
good, hard-to-beat competition side, rarely troubled at the group stage,
although their best tournament performances in recent memory – in 2004 and 2006
– were achieved with a different generation of players. They look most likely
to be effective as a counter-attacking side, with Ronaldo and Nani more than
capable of punishing any side that naively goes through the throat against
them. But in Group G they face three other fairly wily units who also like to
sit back and counter-punch; this group could be a cagey affair.
Strengths:
Ronaldo, obviously, and a sprinkling of other top class talent too; good
defence; plenty of tournament experience; speed, especially on the break.
Weaknesses: Not a
lot of obvious goal threat against the best opposition; slightly dull midfield and
uninspiring choice of strikers; feeling that some of the players (Pepe,
Meireles, Alves, Nani) may already have peaked.
Young player to
watch: William Carvalho could be a good bet for team of the season if Paulo
Bento’s tactics permit him time on the field.
Verdict: Big
call, we know – but an early flight home, this time.
USA
You-Ess-Ay! You-Ess-Ay! What does this tournament hold in
store for the men of the Stars and Stripes, standard-bearers for a burgeoning
football culture that has started to see off a lot of its doubters?
In terms of assessing the team on its own merits, it’s
actually hard to say, as this is a very transitional team. The story of the
last few weeks has been coach Jurgen Klinsmann’s decision to jettison from the
squad Landon Donovan, the most complete footballer his country has ever
produced. In the absence of their long-time advanced playmaker, and under the
captaincy of the sometimes unpredictable Clint Dempsey, it’s not clear what we
can expect from what is quite a young squad. It’s a shame, in fact, that the
almost ludicrous difficulty of the draw has probably made it academic.
Starting with the defence, Tim Howard’s place in goal seems
secure, as does DaMarcus Beasley’s at left bak. That’s a relatively unusual
position in this squad, as Klinsmann likes to mix it up, and in many positions
his first choice isn’t settled. Beasley and Howard are the leaders of a defence
which will probably see Sporting Kansas City’s Matt Besler in one of the
central spots. Alongside, Omar Gonzalez of LA Galaxy is seen as the likeliest
choice but we could also see Geoff Cameron in this position; he has become a
very effective campaigner at Premiership level with Stoke City, and Klinsmann
values his power and commitment. At right-back, Fabian Johnson is expected to
get the nod but he faces a rival in the form of famed Rob Earnshaw lookalike
Timmy Chandler, who like Johnson was born, and plays, in Germany. A youthful
option in the same position is DeAndre Yedlin, while John Brooks, of Hertha
Berlin, is another young reserve, again born in Germany. Brooks, 21, is
rumoured to be in demand from a number of Premiership clubs. Versatility is the
watchword in the USA’s defence, with a number of players able to cover
different positions, so Klinsmann has the wide range of choie that he seems to
enjoy.
The US possess an old school midfield general of a type that
almost seems to be becoming extinct, in Michael Bradley, a box-to-box man who
has plenty to offer on either the front or back foot. Fairly successful during
club spells in the Netherlands, Germany and Italy, he now plays for FC Toronto.
To free Bradley from too much defensive work, the centre is likely to feature a
couple of other tough-guys; quite a likely pick is Jermaine Jones, a Nigel de
Jong-style torrent of midfield rage. If Klinsmann goes for 4-4-2, which he
often has done, then a tightish midfield diamond will probably see Jones and
Bradley in the centre, with box-to-box man Graham Zusi to their right. The left
side seletion is much more questionable; Fabian Johnson is capable of playing
there but the role may go to former Rangers man Alejandro Bedoya, whose
international career may finally be taking off. He offers a creative presence
that the US otherwise lack, especially without Donovan. On that note, however,
one of the stories of the world cup warmup for the USA was the burgeoning form
of young, Norwegian-American playmaker Mix Diskerud; he is an intriguing option
but the question is how to accommodate him. The answer might be a shift to
4-5-1; this would suit the Americans’ personnel better in many ways, with
Diskerud playing no.10 behind a centre-forward and Bradley sitting deeper, but
it would probably mean moving Dempsey out to one of the wings displacing either
Zusi or Bedoya. Jozy Altidore seems the overwhelmingly likely starter at no.9,
his style and physical presence giving the US an outlet they need on the
counter; conventionally, and unless the side is re-tooled to accommodate
Diskerud, captain Dempsey plays either alongside Dempsey or just behind him in
an attacking no.10 role.
In terms of other options, veteran Brad Davis can hold the
left flank of midfield while much hope is placed on the long term future of 18
year old Julian Green, a midfielder/forward with a bright future at Bayern
Munich. He may have value to add as a surprise substitute. Kyle Beckerman is an
honest box-to-box grafter with a decent touch and plenty of international
experience. Forward Chris Wondolowski is probably the only real alternative to
Altidore as a conventional no.9, but Aron Johansson, an Ielandi-American
playing for AZ in the Netherlands, offers a choice up front.
Klinsmann has made a big and bold decision in dropping
Donovan, and on paper we don’t consider it a sound choice. It begs the question
of whether the coach has already written off the chances of progress in this
World Cup, and decided to experiment. With most of their emerging talent
looking like it needs more time to emerge, and few players, even Dempsey, who
look like real international match-winners, the US are a long shot indeed to
progress.
Strengths: Good
mix of youth and experience, even without Donovan; energetic midfield and an
unlikely but somehow effective forward combination in Dempsey and Altidore;
element of surprise with their young players.
Weaknesses: Lack
of ultimate quality; limited creativity and goal threat; not clear how they’ll
replae Donovan’s craft.
Young player to watch:
Diskerud
Verdict: Not
total also-rans, but unlikely to progress beyond the groups this time.
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